Dmitri's Predictions (Apr. 30)
First Round (June 16)
- Gennady Zyuganov
- Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Second Round (a.k.a. Runoff) (July 7 or July 14)
- Gennady Zyuganov
- Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Analysis (May 6, revised version: May 9)
The opinion poll figures are suspect. Proof by examples:
- Institute of the Sociology of Parliamentarism (head: Nugzar
Betaneli) claims having polled 6000 people on Apr. 10-15
and puts Zyuganov's first round vote
at 38-47%. Other sources estimate this rating at 19-27%.
- Apr. 10 VCIOM runoff forecast for the pair
Zyuganov-Yavlinsky is,
Yavlinsky 31%,
Zyuganov 27%. Similar poll by ROMIR
published on Apr. 14 predicted that
Yavlinsky, with 28%,
would lose to Zyuganov's 39%.
- In December, VCIOM predicted that the KRO
of Lebed and Skokov
would pick up 13.1% of the vote, ahead of
Zhirinovsky's
LDPR (11.5%). Nezavisimaya Gazeta also put
the KRO ahead, with 6.5%
against the LDPR's 5.7%. In fact,
Zhirinovsky's party
finished second in the party list vote with 11.18%,
the KRO was seventh (!) with 4.31%.
Because of the pro-Yeltsin
mass media campaign, a few respondents may
"play it safe" with the pollsters,
falsely saying they'd vote Yeltsin.
In fact, they'll vote
Zhirinovsky or
Yavlinsky.
Even worse, some polling organizations might have slanted the results
in favor of Yeltsin, hoping to
influence the mood of the public and thus help
Yeltsin. Under Communists,
public opinion research will die pretty quickly.
Why not overblow Yavlinsky's
rating instead? My answer is,
Yavlinsky's campaign is cheaper,
Yeltsin has more power and sponsors.
I trust the MSU Center of Social Research study (Dec. 95) that put
opposition to the right of private citizens to buy and sell land
at 41.3% and the early April VCIOM poll that showed the percentage
of respondents who thought the old Soviet political system was best
for Russia at 41%. In the latter poll, state planning was favored
over the market economy by 42% of respondents.
This is
Zyuganov's second round vote
against Yavlinsky
or Yeltsin. There would be
fewer votes against all if Yavlinsky
could make it to the second round, though.
Compare the negative ratings of Yeltsin
and Yavlinsky.
Direct poll results suggest the same.
I expect that Zhirinovsky
will pick up some of the "pro-Soviet"
votes in the first and the second round, but
Zyuganov
will get extra runoff votes from those scared of
Zhirinovsky.
As of May 6, I had a feeling that the recent 180-degree change
in the views of Lebed
on the military reform would
lead to his settlement for a Defence Minister
portfolio in the potential
Yavlinsky gov't. Most of the nationalist
Lebed sympathizers would switch to
Zhirinovsky.
Lebed seemingly changes his views
on the "third force" deal prospective ever so often, but I still
predict that most of his December votes will go to
Zhirinovsky (this correction
is made on May 9 because of yet another
Lebed's
mood swing: no matter what he's gonna do now, he'll
"fall through the cracks").
I can think of a few things that might harm
Yeltsin's chances.
- Yeltsin's recent populist moves,
along with business fears of the Communist revenge, will cause
a major price hike.
- The shameless pro-Yeltsin
campaign in the pro-gov't media will backfire. We saw that
happen to Ryzhkov in 1991. The media failed to scare the
public with capitalism, it won't scare it with communism.
- Yeltsin's health may let him
down again.
- "The Third Force" of
Yavlinsky,
Lebed, and
Fedorov
will steal a bundle of votes from the incumbent (but not
enough to beat Zhirinovsky).
Indeed, why would anyone vote for old, sick, and oafish
Yeltsin,
and not for younger and brighter
Yavlinsky? There
are answers to that, but I don't find them
especially convincing. Indeed, when the pro-gov't
media pawns are saying that Yeltsin
is the only real alternative to the Communists and that
Yavlinsky has no chance
of making the second round, they don't even believe
it themselves, so does anyone REALLY believe them?
And if one supports the Chechen war
(Yavlinsky doesn't,
Yeltsin started it in the first
place), why not vote Zyuganov or
Zhirinovsky? Anyhow, the popularity
of the Chechen war is questionable, or
Yeltsin wouldn't
come up with the publicity stunt he called his "peace plan".
The final argument: Zhirinovsky
has beaten the ratings twice (in 1993 and 1995), he is
going to do it again.
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